Aging labor force pressurizes economy

Zhou Tianyong, an economist from the Party School of the Central Committee of Communist Party of China, told the Global Times on Friday that China’s economic growth rate in 2015 was 6.9 percent, official figures indicated, the first time that the official rate has been below 7 percent in six years. According to his research, demographics play a major role.

周五的时候，中央党校经济学家周天勇告诉《环球时报》说，官方数据显示中国2015年的经济增长速度是6.9%， 六年来首次降到7%以下。根据他的研究，人口因素起了很大的作用。

Zhou said that a shrinking labor force led to the soaring of labor costs, which directly affects the country’s exports. Meanwhile, the aging population raises challenges for the country’s social security system.

周天勇说道，劳动力供给减少导致了劳动力成本飙升，进而降低了中国出口产业的竞争力。而与此同时，老龄化人的口增多也给中国社会保障体系带来了不小的压力。

He added that a fall in the working-age population would affect the country’s consumption, as well as leading to the decline of rigid demands such as houses and cars, and would further contribute to the surplus of cement, steel, and coal.

他还强调到，劳动力人口下降将会影响中国的消费，减少对诸如房产和汽车等产品的刚性需求，甚至还会导致水泥、钢铁、煤炭等行业产能过剩。

"If the country lacks industrial demand, exports, consumption, investment will definitely shrink, along with economic growth," said Zhou.

周天勇说道：“如果中国缺少对工业产品、出口产品和消费的需求的话，那么投资就会萎缩，同时经济增长的速度也会放缓。”

Zhou’s research found a strong correlation between economic and population growth between 1974 and 1994, leading him to predict more future pressures.

他在研究中发现从1974年到1994年，中国的经济和人口增长显著相关。因此他预测，在老龄化不断加深的情况下，中国未来的经济将面临更多的压力。

The number of people aged between 16 and 59 will decrease to 896 million in 2020 and 824 million in 2030, while the number of those aged 60 and over will grow to 253 million in 2020 and 365 million in 2030, according to new data provided by the Population and Development Studies Center at the Renmin University of China to the Global Times.

根据中国人民大学人口和发展研究中心向《环球时报》提供的数据显示，预计到2020年，16到59岁的劳动人口将减少到8.96亿人，而到2030年，将进一步减少到8.24亿人。与此同时，60岁以上的老年人口在2020年时将增加到2.53亿人，而到2030年将进一步增加到3.65亿人。

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2015, China’s working age population was 911 million and there were 222 million senior citizens.

国家统计局的数据显示，2015年中国劳动力人口数量为9.11亿人，老年人口达到了2.22亿人。

Zhou’s opinion was echoed by Yi Fuxian, a long-term critic of China’s family planning policy and a scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US, who warned that China has entered a "low fertility trap."

周天勇的观点和易富贤不谋而合。易富贤是美国麦迪逊市威士康星大学的学者，此前他一直对中国的计划生育政策持批评态度，并警告说中国已经步入了一个“低生育率陷阱”之中。

"China’s current demographic structure is severely distorted, as the country now faces problems such as low fertility, an aging society and gender imbalance. This may hinder economic development as well as social stability in the long run," said Mu Guangzong, a professor at Peking University’s Institute of Population Research.

北京大学人口研究所教授穆光宗说：“中国目前的人口结构严重扭曲，面临着诸如低生育率、人口老龄化和性别失衡等问题。这可能会阻碍经济发展和社会长治久安。”

However, Song Jian, a professor specializing in demographics at the Renmin University of China, said that China’s economic development mainly depends on economic restructuring and industrial policy adjustment.

但是，中国人民大学人口统计学教授宋健表示说，中国经济的发展主要依赖于经济结构和产业政策的调整。

"Compared to the quantity, the quality of population is more important. Many senior citizens are still participating in social activities," said Song.

他强调到：“相比于数量，人口的质量更加重要。许多老年人依然在参加社会活动。”

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来源:Global Times爱语吧作者:陶祥飞